What is the situation of the world if the world is uniformly gold and silver to exchange currency exchanges?

Signing an over -frequency bilateral currency exchange agreement, lack of needs for actual trade settlement and investment convenience, or infectious channels that will open up the Chinese financial system and world financial risks.

The special author of this magazine Wang Xingping / Wen

2018 Human currency exchange rate is particularly strange. In the first stage, from the beginning of the year to April 17 It is a trend of shocking upward, up 4.10%. From April 17th to June 18th is the second stage (most emerging market currencies have depreciated sharply against the US dollar, Turkish lira, Mexican Bisso and South Africa are depreciated by more than 10%). From June 18th to the end of August, the third stage depreciated nearly 7%against the US dollar.

In economic fundamental point of view, the Sino -US trade war from the Trump administration of the United States has intensified, the domestic A -share index fell into a new low during the year, and the macro situation has indeed produced a certain amount of people's psychology to a certain amount of psychology. The influence, but in the total of less than half a year, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has reached 9.42%, setting the highest record of depreciation over the years.

Careful observation, the offshore market dominated the depreciation of the exchange rate. After the end of June and early July, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been speeded up. Some trading days have depreciated more than 300 points. After 7 or 8 months, they actually became empty home. The offshore market that is not monitored by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the influence and formation of the RMB exchange rate depends on the multiple and empty positions of the market participants at the hand. In time, especially from the dense transactions and rapid increase in transactions from the end of June to the beginning of June, obviously, some large institutions with important chips have participated in the exchange rate game.

So, what kind of power and institution dominate this round of RMB depreciation?

The funds in China have not showed a large outflow

2018, China's frequent account deficit is US $ 28.3 billion, of which the trade surplus of goods trade is 155.9 billion U.S. dollars, and the service trade deficit is 147.3 billion US dollars. ; Capital and financial account surplus is 66.8 billion US dollars, of which the capital account deficit is US $ 200 million, non -reserved financial account surplus surplus is 117.1 billion US dollars, and reserve assets have increased by 5.1 billion US dollars.

The overseas institutions have steadily increased their holding of RMB assets. According to the data of China Bonds, the investment willingness of overseas institutions to invest in China Treasury has continued to increase, and the total number of Chinese Treasury bonds has reached 98.369 billion yuan, which is only one step away from the 1 trillion yuan integer mark, and has maintained an upward trend for 18 consecutive months.

The latest foreign exchange reserve scale data released by the People's Bank of China on August 7 shows that as of the end of July 2018, the scale of Chinese foreign exchange reserves was US $ 3117.9 billion, an increase of 5.8 billion US dollars from the end of June. Therefore, the increase in foreign reserves in July indicates that the current cross -border capital flow situation is generally stable and keeps net inflow.

The on the first half of 2018, since the first half of 2018, cross -border capital flows and foreign exchange supply and demand are basically balanced, the exchange rate is expected to be stable, and the previously introduced counter -cycle macro -prudential capital flow management policy has returned neutral. Although factors such as the rise in the US dollar index, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and the start of trade war have indeed affected the psychology of maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate. However, participants in the offshore RMB market overseas must invest in real gold and silver for transactions in order to control the changes and depreciation of the RMB exchange rate. However, the defense line of China's capital account control is still as firm as a rock, and the flow of cross -border capital flow is generally stable. In the case of maintaining net inflows, why does the RMB exchange rate depreciate so significantly? Where does the large amount of funds from the RMB offshore market empty?

In emerging market currency crisis

2018, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the Trump administration imposed economic sanctions on several countries, the currency of emerging market countries has gone through one. Crisis, and the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in April is over time with the monetary crisis of emerging markets.

If the nominal valid exchange rate of emerging markets hit a new low in 25 years, and the actual effective exchange rate also depreciated by more than 3%during the year. Affected by the deterioration of political, economy, and diplomatic fundamentals, some emerging markets faced the impact of international tourism "fast forward and fast out", and the exchange rate depreciated sharply. Since the beginning of the year, Venezuela Bolovar, Argentina peso, Turkish lira have depreciated more than 30%, and Rante and Brazil's Rayar have depreciated more than 10%.

The central banks and currency authorities of these emerging countries have a currency swap agreement with the Central Bank of China. At the time of the serious crisis of currency in emerging markets, they started the currency swap agreement signed with the Bank of China.

The financial management authorities in China currently signed 3 trillion yuan for the financial management authorities in foreign countries or regions. Why do we need to exchange currency with such a large number of emerging market countries?

The "Monetary Policy Report" issued by the Central Bank of China regularly, each time the currency amount used in the currency swap agreement is the same. positive effects.

but the traditional bilateral currency exchange is in order to intervene in the foreign exchange market, in order to intervene in the foreign exchange market, respond to short -term international liquidity issues, and stabilize market confidence, so as to carry out confidence in marketing, so as to carry out confidence in market confidence, so as to do so Bilateral cooperation arrangements. Therefore, the earliest bilateral currency exchange carried out by China was used to solve the problem of short -term international liquidity. For example, on December 30, 2003, Zhou Xiaochuan, then President of the People's Bank of China, and Mr. Abdllah, the president of the Bank of Indonesia (Indonesia Central Bank), signed a bilateral currency exchange agreement in Beijing. The US dollar in the hands of the Bank of China exchanged for Indonesia's Lu Rice in Indonesia. According to this agreement, the People's Bank of China can provide the Indonesian bank with up to $ 1 billion in credit funds when necessary, as a supplement to accept the aid funds for international financial institutions to support Indonesia to resolve international income and expenditure difficulties and maintain financial stability.

Prerton forest system after disintegration, the trend of currency exchange between international central banks is a strong union between countries related to political interests. This currency exchange (agreement) is mainly in developed countries. Perform. For example, on October 31, 2013, a total of six central banks in the United States, Europe, Switzerland, Britain, Canada, and Japan announced that they would convert the original temporary bilateral currency swap agreement to transform the growth period, unlimited, and multilateral exchange agreement.

But rarely sees a currency swap agreement between a financial power and a lack of funds. If the Federal Reserve signed a bilateral currency swap agreement with the Argentine or Turkish central bank, then Argentina peso, Turkish lira, the exchange part is locked on the Fed's account, and the Argentine Central Bank and the Turkish central bank throw the US dollars in the market. In this way, the exchange rate of peso in the financial market and the US dollar against the US dollar not only fell, but rose sharply.

The exchange between non -mainstream currencies is mainly carried out between developing countries and emerging market countries. It can also be called "South -South cooperation". The exchange between mainstream currencies and non -mainstream currencies can maintain international financial stability. However, the exchange between non -mainstream currencies and between soft currency currencies is easier to spread international financial risks. After all, the economic fundamentals of non -mainstream currency issuers are usually poor. Because of the narrow and small settlement of international trade, the exchange rate fluctuations are relatively large, which is easy to provide one of the currency exchange agreements. Opportunities for arbitrage operations.

The arbitrage method of currency swap

On the surface, "the currency swap protocol has avoided exchange rates and interest rate risks when designing." The actual operation process is also the same. After the currency swap agreement expires, the country's currency is replaced first, and fair and reasonable interest is paid in accordance with the terms of the currency exchange agreement.

. Generally, the protocol has been signed for a long time, but the startup of the agreement has another attempt. If the benefits of the two parties on currency exchange on the demand for transaction are too different, so when initiating the currency exchange agreement, the active party is Fang should get compensation in other aspects, which is similar to a (pledge) loan that enterprises apply for a commercial bank.

The pledge in trade financing is the party that accepts pledge. It has the right to deal with the pledged object during the pledge. As long as the pledge is over, the pledged party can return the assets equivalent to the pledged object to the other party. The essence of currency swap is a two -way currency pledge loan. As a active request for the launch of the currency swap agreement, the central bank of the country can be regarded as a loan demand, and there is a pre -prepared currency usage plan; One party, another central bank that can be regarded as a lender, can only use the other party's currency as a pledge to dispose of the high cabinet.

For example, the Central Bank of China reported in August: "At the end of June, under the bilateral basis exchange agreement signed by the People's Bank of China and the overseas currency authorities, the overseas currency authorities used the RMB balance of 32066 billion yuan, and the people were used. Banks use foreign currency balances equivalent to US $ 9.27 billion. "Here, if the currencies of both parties are calculated with RMB, the amount of bilateral currency exchange is 320: 63. The pledge was lying on the account and did not invest in the financial market.

The signing of a currency swap agreement depends on the needs of the signed initiator. One side actively asked the central bank to sign and start the agreement. From the above data, the passive amount of RMB is much larger than that of the local currency of the overseas currency authorities to the Chinese central bank. Although the central bank does not explain what kind of foreign currency is exchanged, the lack of use is a clear problem.

Is to imagine that the other party of currency exchange converts the RMB assets obtained from the currency into the US dollar, and assumes that the yield of US dollar assets is 3%(refer to the US 10 -year Treasury bond In return rate), at the expiration of currency swaps, the RMB increased by 10%of the dollar can obtain a yield of 13%. This operation is called "triangular settlement" in the international financial vocabulary, that is, selling the local currency from the local currency from other countries for the main currency of the main currency of the local currency for arbitrage.